The energy landscape is rapidly transforming, and a potential surge in electricity demand is the primary force driving a fundamental shift in grid dynamics and resource planning.
In a detailed study commissioned by the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), Evolved Energy Research analyzed the potential impacts and of this electricity demand growth across sectors. This report offers critical insights into how future energy demand and grid operations in the region will evolve, along with actionable implications for strategic planning.
Methodology
To execute this project, Evolved Energy Research employed its proprietary EnergyPATHWAYS model, a bottom-up stock rollover tool designed to project future energy demand across sectors with hourly fidelity. The study incorporated comprehensive data analysis, including historical electricity load patterns and weather conditions, to model SPP-specific Scenarios. Advanced machine learning techniques, such as random forest regression, were used to develop granular load shapes, while spatial disaggregation methodologies ensured precise alignment with SPP's pricing zones. Additionally, EER’s expertise in integrating unconventional loads, such as hydrogen electrolysis and data centers, enabled the team to highlight the implications of emerging technologies on grid operations. The result was a highly detailed assessment tailored to inform SPP’s long-term planning efforts.
Numbers to Know
Exploring the Electrification Scenarios
The report evaluates three electrification Scenarios, each reflecting varying levels of electricity adoption and infrastructure adaptation:
Baseline Electrification: Represents a business-as-usual model with limited technological uptake, consistent with current trends.
Moderate Electrification: Envisions moderate adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and other electrification technologies, leading to gradual increases in demand.
Full Electrification: Assumes aggressive electrification across residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors, creating profound changes in energy consumption patterns.
SPP Electricity Demand by Sector
Key Technical Findings and Sectoral Implications
1. Electrification of Transportation.Â
Transportation electrification emerged as a key driver of increased energy demand across all Scenarios:
Even under moderate adoption, EVs will significantly alter load profiles, particularly during peak charging periods.
By 2050, transportation could account for one of the largest shares of the grid's energy demand, especially under the Full Electrification Scenario.
Infrastructure upgrades, including expanded charging networks and smart grid technologies, will be crucial for accommodating this growth.
Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies present an opportunity to manage peak demand and enhance grid stability. By strategically shifting charging to off-peak hours, these technologies could mitigate the need for costly capacity expansion.
2. Seasonal Demand Peaks.Â
Electrification of heating technologies introduces significant seasonal variations:
Northern regions may experience a shift to winter-peaking systems due to increased demand for space heating.
Southern regions are expected to maintain summer-peaking profiles, with some areas potentially transitioning to dual peaks.
a) SPP Territory Map
b) North/South Full Electrification Load Comparison (w/o electrolysis load)
3. Unconventional Loads.
The emergence of unconventional loads, such as data centers and hydrogen electrolysis, adds complexity to grid management:
Data Centers: Driven by AI, cloud computing, and digital services, data centers represent a rapidly growing source of electricity demand. Their locational flexibility, combined with the SPP region’s low-cost renewable resources, makes them likely candidates for development.
Hydrogen Electrolysis: Electrolyzers for hydrogen production (E-fuels) could account for up to one-third of electricity demand in Full Electrification Scenarios. The region’s abundant wind resources provide a competitive advantage for attracting hydrogen production facilities.
 Cost Percentile for E-Fuel Production
